Iran’s Nuclear Headache Is Not Going To End Anytime Soon
Amid rumors that Washington seeks to form the so-called “Arab NATO”, indirect talks between the US and Iran in Doha, Qatar, that aimed at salvaging the Iranian nuclear deal, ended without any progress.
Instead, the talks — which were brokered by the European Union — were left in a stagnant spot, “which at this point means backward,” a senior administration official said.
We have doubts that a deal will be reached anytime soon. Yet, frankly speaking, both parties should not be happy with that. Iran, on the one hand, is faced with tremendous economic challenges. The US, too, is paying the price of it is a fiasco in Ukraine. The Biden administration is grappling with soaring energy and gas prices. The latest polls show that the current administration is becoming less popular in America.
The Doha talks came months after the failed negotiations at Vienna. Meanwhile, Iran shut off surveillance cameras of international inspectors and now has enough high-enriched uranium to potentially fashion into at least one nuclear bomb if it chose, Associated Press reveals.
European Union mediator Enrique Mora on Twitter described as “intense” the two days of talks in Doha.
“Unfortunately, not yet the progress the EU team as coordinator had hoped for,” Mora wrote. “We will keep working with even greater urgency to bring back on track a key deal for non-proliferation and regional stability.”
If both parties fail to mend ties, it is not an exaggeration to say that an arms race is expected to take place in the Middle East in the not-too-distant future. Biden’s latest visit to Saudi Arabia has shown once again that Washington can not give up on it is old allies. Now with the talks failing, Biden seeks to regain the trust of his allies in the region to curb the Iranian threat. The so-called “Arab NATO”, though seems too hypothetical to fathom, is more likely to prompt a plethora of undesired consequences. In all scenarios, Israel is the major benefactor of the American- Iranian spat.
Nora Maher, a professor at the British University in Egypt, argues that the Arab Spring, coupled with the rise of Tehran, paved the way for better relations between the Arab countries and Israel to counter the so-called Iranian threat.
Israel knows that Iran’s ambitions in the region do not involve attacking Tel Aviv. Considering Iran’s limited deterrence capacity which does not match that of nuclear weapon states such as Israel, in addition to the implications of initiating an offensive against Israel, it will be fair enough to argue that Iran’s nuclear program will not pose an existential threat to Israel.
“The spread of Iranian influence in the region has strengthened Israel’s security, and fostered an unprecedented open rapprochement with the Gulf regimes,” Maher Writes
“The challenge for Israel, however, lies in how to continue exporting Iran’s scarecrow to the Gulf States while at the same time encircle Iran’s influence and near-border nuclear and missile activities, therefore, keeping the Iranian threat” at a distance from the Israeli borders,” Maher added.
The current US administration is faced with unprecedented challenges. On the one hand, Israel is using the Iranian threat to further it is tied with the Gulf. On the other hand, Iran is pressuring the US through it is nuclear program. And lastly, the mid-term elections are approaching, while China is ramping up it is efforts to invade Taiwan. Faced with many challenges, the Biden administration has finally fathomed the fact that America can not wish away the consequences of it is own actions in the Middle East, not even through a shaky nuclear deal with Tehran.